Over the next 20 years, emerging economies will drive a 40% growth in primary energy use, says BP in its annual Energy Outlook 2030 report.
The total use of fossil fuels will decline as renewables such as solar, wind and geothermal, as well as nuclear and hydro-power increase their contributions to the global energy mix.
For the first time, these technologies will provide the largest source of growth in new energy, from 5% today up to 18% by 2030.
BP predicts the overall use of fossil fuels will decrease. Fossil fuels contributed 83% to the growth in energy from 1990-2010, however between 2010-2030 levels will likely drop to 64%.
Oil’s share of this total will gradually decline as use of natural gas use rises. Despite coal’s recent spike in response to voracious demand from China and India, BP predicts a reverse in its growth trend by 2030.
A whopping 93% of energy growth over the next 20 years will come from emerging economies as Chinese oil consumption grows by 8 million barrels a day (mbpd). By 2030, Chinese consumption will likely reach 17.5mbpd, bringing it ahead of the United States as the world’s largest consumer of oil.
New energy regulatory policies and the deployment of clean technologies may help slow carbon emissions, BP says, however total global emissions in 2030 are predicted to be 27% higher than today. Read more…